Tuesday, 16 October 2012
Spain credit line and bailout talks - Rally in Risk!
Earlier, talks of credit line specifically being extended to Spain led the jump in EURO. EURUSD breaking a key resistance line at 1.3020. Optimism on earlier Spanish bailout also supported the up move in Risk.
A German lawmaker later denied the rumours on credit line. EurUsd retreated back from its high.
Talks that there could be also a downgrade on Spain by Moodys to junk status. If that happens, I think we will see Eur retreating back downwards. If EurUsd can't hold above the 1.3020 key level, I think it would be good to short the currency pair.
At the moment, Spanish yields aren't at extreme levels yet and the Spanish government might not ask for a bailout so soon. I reckon they might do it sometime in November.
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